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Existing home sales climbed a record +20.7% in June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.72 million, but were unable to recover from the previous 3 months of sales losses and were down -11.3% compared to one year previously. Home prices continued to rise for the 100th consecutive month and were up +3.5% for the year to a median $295,300. Prices were pushed up by a significantly low inventory of homes available for sale, which ticked up +1.3% over the month to 1.57 million units, but was down -18.2% over the year. Unsold inventory was down to 4.0 months at the current sales pace compared to 4.8 months in May and 4.3 months one year ago.
June’s new home sales grew +13.8% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 776,000 and May’s sales were upwardly revised (+6,000) to a rate of 682,000. June’s sales were at the strongest rate since July 2007, and were up +6.9% compared to a year previously. The median sale price was up +5.6% for the year to $329,200, with 35% of homes sold in the $200,000 – $299,999 range and 26% of homes in the $300,000 – $399,999 range. As with sales of existing homes, inventory was low with 307,000 units available for a 4.7 month supply at the current rate of sales.
The IHS Markit Composite PMI for July rose to a 6 month high of 50.0 (+2.1). With values greater than 50 indicating expansion and values less than 50 indicating contraction, the service sector contraction slowed from an index of 47.9 to 49.6 and manufacturing output grew moderately from 49.8 to 51.3. Service sector firms faced “challenging demand conditions”, which included the reintroduction of lockdowns in some locations. There was a slight rise in workforce numbers and increasing input costs and output charges brought inflation to its highest increases since October 2018. Optimism grew on hopes of increasing client demand and an end to the pandemic, but the report noted that hopes were qualified by uncertainty over the course of the pandemic and the outcome of November’s election.
Wednesday July 29 – FOMC Statement
Thursday July 30 – First Estimate Q2 GDP