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GDP for the first quarter of 2019 was lowered from 3.2% to 3.1% due to the effects of downward revisions to business investment and private inventory investment along with an upward revision to imports, but these were largely offset by upward revisions to exports and consumer spending. Corporate profits fell -2.8% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2.245 trillion for the second consecutive quarterly drop, but were up +3.1% compared to Q1 2018. Wages and salaries for 2018 Q4 were also revised downward to $45.3 billion from $54.7 billion, lowering the Q4 estimate of growth for inflation adjusted after tax income to 3.2% from the previous estimate of 4.3%.
The goods trade deficit widened by $200 million in April to $72.1 billion as a -$5.641 billion (-4.2%) drop in exports outpaced a -$5.885 billion (-2.7%) drop in imports. Both exports and imports fell in all categories, with the exception of a +$52 billion (+0.5%) increase in exports of food, feeds & beverages. Compared to April 2018, exports were down -$5.078 billion, with the sharpest drops for capital goods (-$1.717 billon), industrial supplies (-$1.52 billion) which include petroleum products, and automobiles (-$923 million), and only consumer goods posting a yearly increase at +$13 million. Imports were also down on a yearly basis (-$1.899 billion), with drops for industrial supplies (-$3.306 billion) and capital goods (-$1.827 billion), but gains for food (+$566 million) and automobiles (+$698 million).
Personal income rose +0.5% in April as a result of increases of +0.3% for compensation of employees, +0.2% for rental income, and +1.6% for income receipts on assets, which is comprised of interest income (+2.3%) and dividend income (+0.7%). After tax inflation adjusted real disposable income was up +0.1% for the month of April, and gained +2.2% for Q1 and +2.8% for all of 2018. Consumer spending dropped -0.8% for durable goods in April, but was balanced out by a +0.7% increase in spending for nondurable goods and a +0.3% increase in spending for services to bring overall personal consumer expenditures up +0.3%. Prices were up +0.2% for the month and +1.5% for the year with the core price index, which strips out the volatile effects of food and energy price fluctuations, increasing by +0.1% to 1.6% for the year.
Monday June 3 – ISM Manufacturing Index
Friday June 7 – Employment Situation